Regional Experts Weigh In on France’s Emmanuel Macron

 French President Emmanuel Macron’s presidential election victory on May 7 marked a new stage for France and for Europe, as he repeatedly stressed the need to strengthen role of his country in the European Union during his election campaign. Nevertheless, his position on many global issues remains unclear.

At age 39, Macron is already accomplished:  He served as France’s Minister of Economy since 2014, was an investment banker, and is a graduate of elite French schools such as Sciences Po and the National School of Administration. But while his experience and knowledge of economic matters runs deep, his stance on foreign policy is less clear to experts in the Caspian region.

“We have seen that his election campaign, first of all, was focused on the domestic political problems, but foreign policy issues were also present and concerned the development of the European Union and France’s participation in NATO,” Denis Denisov, Director of the Institute of Peace Initiatives and Conflict Studies in Moscow told Caspian News. “But, at the same time, there is still a large gap on a number of issues,” he added.

France’s youngest president has already made statements on global issues, such as fighting against terrorism, including the Islamic State, a jihadist group based in Syria and Iraq that has claimed responsibility for multiple attacks in France since December 2014.  

Syria, which has been embroiled in conflict for over six years and locked in a civil war, where forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and those opposed to his rule battle each other, has been among foreign policy topics touched upon by Macron as part of his election campaign.

Pavel Timofeyev, a research fellow at the Moscow-based Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), is not convinced there will be a breakthrough in the relationship between Paris and Moscow under Macron.

“During the debates on May 3, he [Macron] said that Russia is France’s working partner, and that his country should work with this partner, but at the same time he stressed that Moscow doesn’t share France’s values and preferences. He did not hide any disagreements,” Timofeyev told Caspian News.

At the same time, Macron is not averse to business and economic ties with Russia.

“On the other hand, if EU-Russian relations drift toward improvement for any reason, then, for sure, France will not stand aside. There will not be any special breakthroughs from Macron, but a pragmatic dialogue on business issues related to French entrepreneurship in Russia is possible,” Timofeyev added.

Relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia quickly went sour after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in 2014. The EU, and some non-EU countries, imposed political and economic sanctions against Russia.

Timofeyev does not see Macron bucking the EU in any way during his tenure, instead standing in solidarity with it.

“Last year Macron, during his visit to Moscow as the economy minister, said that sanctions should be removed. At the same time, when he returned to France, he told something quite different, saying that sanctions on Russia are needed and that they will remain,” Timofeyev  said, describing Macron as a “pragmatic and adaptive person.”

On Turkey, Macron has not been muted but not quite in support of Turkey’s bid for EU membership.

“During the election campaign Macron argued that if he is elected, there will be no progress regarding the discussions,” Elnur Ismayil, a research fellow at the Turkey-based Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies (BILGESAM), told Caspian News. “The day after the last stage of the Turkish referendum held in April, Macron stated that he regretted profoundly and disagreed with the path taken by Turkey,” Ismayil said, referring to the referendum held which will see Turkey turned into a presidential republic.

How Macron will approach the Caspian region is still unclear, as he has not made any statements to date on issues pertaining to them beyond Iran.

“The only thing that can be said at the moment, especially regarding the relationship with Tehran, is that most likely Macron will adhere to a position close to the position of the United States,” Denisov said, speaking to Caspian News from Moscow. France is a member of the P5 +1 group (France, the US, the UK, China, Russia, plus Germany), which brokered a groundbreaking deal with Tehran in 2015 to roll back some sanctions on Iran in exchange for it curbing its nuclear program.

As for Azerbaijan – a country locked in a ‘frozen conflict’ with its western neighbor Armenia – Macron’s election is seen as the best choice given all other French presidential candidates.

“Macron is a more suitable political figure for Azerbaijan compared to François Fillon and Marine Le Pen, whose campaign statements supported Armenia. They even offered to annex Azerbaijan’s Nagorniy Karabakh region. It was an open intrigue against Azerbaijan,” Elkhan Sahinoglu, head of the Baku-based Atlas Research Center, told Caspian News.

France is one of three co-chair countries within the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group, a multilateral body chaired by France, Russia and the US set up to help find a peaceful solution to the Nagorniy Karabakh conflict.

“I don’t believe that Macron’s involvement will differ from the positions of France’s former presidents, including François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy. I don’t think that France will become an active mediator in the conflict’s solution under Macron,” Sahinoglu said.