Russia Willing to Maintain Gas Transit Through Ukraine After 2024, but Acknowledges Limits on Influence

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that Moscow is willing to continue sending gas to Europe through pipelines across Ukraine even after 2024. However, he further emphasized that Russia “cannot force” Ukraine to extend the gas transit agreement, which is set to expire on December 31 of this year.

Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on Thursday, President Putin made it clear that Russia does not intend to abandon gas transit through Ukraine, despite the ongoing conflict between the two countries.

“We do not refuse this transit. Why? Because we and Gazprom intend to fulfill all of our obligations to our clients with whom we have long-term contracts,” he said. 

However, he acknowledged that if Ukraine refuses to continue transit, Russia has no power to change their decision.

Vladimir Putin also pointed out that while European nations continue to support Ukraine with financial, military, and other assistance, they do not seem eager to encourage Kyiv to maintain the gas transit route.

The president suggested that Russia could redirect the gas supplies through alternative pipelines, such as the TurkStream or Blue Stream routes to Türkiye, if Ukraine opts out of the agreement.

“But if Ukraine refuses our transit, that means that we will cut volumes of gas that go to Europe. They will go along other routes,” Putin noted. 

He also stressed that these alternative routes could still contribute to energy stability in Europe, adding, “But this is their choice. How this will affect them, I do not know for sure.”

President Putin’s statement comes as European nations have been working to reduce their dependence on Russian energy since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Countries like the US and UK have already pledged to stop buying Russian oil, and Europe is gradually limiting imports through conservation and investments in renewable energy. The European Union is also set to ban transshipments of Russian liquefied natural gas at its ports starting next March.

While Russia faces growing sanctions on its energy sector, Vladimir Putin expressed confidence that Moscow will manage to cope with the challenges. He suggested that even if Europe no longer relies on Russian gas, the country will find alternative markets, particularly in Asia. For instance, gas exports to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline are set to reach a full capacity of 38 billion cubic meters annually next year. Russia is also planning to increase gas supplies to China through the Far Eastern route by an additional 10 billion cubic meters per year.

The Russian president also highlighted that one line of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany remains intact after the September 2022 explosions that damaged the other line. According to the Russian president, gas flows could resume quickly if Germany decides to reactivate the pipeline, which has an annual capacity of 27.5 billion cubic meters. However, this would require European political will, which remains uncertain given the current sanctions on Russian energy.

The Eastern Economic Forum, held in Vladivostok from September 3-6, 2024, was focused on the theme “Far East 2030: Combining Strengths to Create New Potential.” The forum brought together leaders and business representatives to discuss economic opportunities in Russia’s Far East region, as well as the country’s broader economic strategy amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions.