Russia Responds To U.S., NATO Actions In Eastern Europe

Russia is deploying its second S-400 air defense missile battalion in Sevastopol city, on the Crimean peninsula, as it seeks to maintain control of the region while sending a warning signal to anyone trying to out-muscle what is the Caspian region’s largest country.

The second S-400 system will be used to control airspace over two settlements located in the northern part of the Russian-controlled Crimean Peninsula. Last Spring, Russia deployed its first S-400 near Feodosia, on the eastern side of the peninsula. Sevastopol is in the southwest.

“Both formations are ready to repel potential missile threats threatening Crimea from the Ukrainian side,” said Dmitry Sevchenko, a State Duma deputy from Sevastopol, as reported by RIA.

Russia’s S-400 Triumf anti-aircraft weapon system, also known as the SA-21 Growler and previously known as the S-300PMU-3, has been in operation since 2007. It consists of very long-range, long range, medium, and short-range missiles. It is considered one of the best anti-aircraft missile systems in the world.

Russia’s deployment of another S-400 unit may be timed to Ukraine having unveiled its mobile short-range ballistic missile system called Grom-2 (meaning “thunder”), meant to be a non-nuclear means of deterrence, at the start of this year.

"We know that provocative activity on the Russian-Ukrainian border near Crimea continues,” Peskov told reporters, saying Russian intelligence is aware of “subversive” activities but that the detachment of second S-400 battalion in Crimea is to ensure Russia’s security, and not to threaten anyone.

Dr. Pavel Luzin, the CEO of Under Mad Trends research and consulting company, sees deeper meaning in the Kremlin’s security posture in Crimea.

“A grouping of troops is deployed in the occupied Crimea, which by all rules must be protected from potential air strikes. The Kremlin considers this in terms of a confrontation with the West,” he told Caspian News.

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in March 2014, which was followed by a military intervention. In a Russia-sponsored referendum, 96 percent of Crimea’s residents agreed with reunification with Russia, although the move has been denounced by the European Union, the United States and other countries, which in turn isolated Russia through a package of sanctions placed on it.

Luzin believes that the Kremlin sees some probability in a confrontation between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states. Earlier, Russia increased its force levels in Kaliningrad – a tiny Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea between Lithuania and Poland – as well as in Moscow.

“Although it sounds like superrealism, Russia knows no way but constant preparation for war,” Luzin said.

Earlier this month the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces said Russia’s recent large-scale military exercise, known as Zapad 2017, simulated a confrontation with not only the Baltic states but western Europe.

“Let me be clear: With the exercise Zapad 2017, Russia simulated a large-scale military attack against NATO," said Riho Terras in an interview last week with Germany’s newspaper Bild, and according to Newsweek.

“It was not targeted toward the Baltic states only, as it was a theater-wide series of exercises spanning from high North to the Black Sea,” Terras said.

Last week NATO deployed the U.S. destroyer USS Carney, a Tomahawk missile-carrying warship, to Ukraine's port of Odessa in the Black Sea basin, which is less than 200 km (124 mi) away from Crimea, and about 300 km (186 mi) from Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. The U.S. Navy says the move is to protect allied defenses and areas on economic importance.

Denis Denisov, Director of the Institute for Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology, told Caspian News that the recent defense maneuvers by both Russia and the U.S., via NATO, are all about strategic confrontation and strategic balance.

“We should not say that the S-400 complex [being located] in Crimea is a symmetric or an asymmetric reply against Ukraine, because the goals and tasks of such divisions are completely different than those that originate from Ukraine,” Denisov said, explaining that any perceived threat from Ukraine is more about protecting from possible terror attacks rather than a threat or desire for an open, armed confrontation.

“The S-400 division serves as a deterrent that protects Russian interests and the Russian’s Crimea, in the framework of a potential confrontation with the North Atlantic Alliance,” he said, referring to NATO.

“Certainly, the Alliance possesses armament against which the S-400 complex can be used. In this respect, the feedback is absolutely symmetrical, so, we shouldn’t make a big deal of that,” Denisov added, believing any activity witnessed at this time is “normal” for the Russian Defense Ministry in order to counterbalance activities by NATO.

Since 2014, NATO has adjusted its security posture along its eastern flank as a reaction to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Analysts believe that Russian actions are in response to NATO’s posturing in the region and do what it sees as necessary to maintain a balance of power.

“Russia's possible reaction covers the whole range of actions - from the tacit recognition of steps taken by the United States and NATO, and the rejection of plans for an attack on NATO, to a sharp increase in the border grouping of Russian troops in order to counterbalance the U.S. and NATO, and a powerful escalation followed by direct conflict,” reads a report published by RAND Corporation.

In order to eliminate such a local imbalance, analysts and political leaders come up with proposals like escalation of Russian’s costs and hurting the chances of success in case of Russia’s attack on any NATO member, referring to the report. All these measures pursue one purpose - to change the behavior of the Kremlin, however, its reaction is unpredictable.

In a recently published Nuclear Posture Review, the Trump administration indicated it is considering loosening restrictions on the use of nuclear weapons and develop a new low-yield nuclear warhead for American Trident missiles, in order to deter Russia from using tactical warheads in a conflict in Eastern Europe.

Jon Wolfsthal, who was a special assistant to Barack Obama on arms control and nonproliferation, said this represents a shift from the Obama administration’s intent to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in American defense.

“What I’ve been told by the people who wrote the thing was what they were trying to do was to send a clear deterrent message to Russians, the North Korean and the Chinese,” Wolfsthal told The Guardian.

“And there is pretty good, moderate but strong language that makes clear that any attempt by Russia or North Korea to use nuclear weapons would result in a massive consequence for them and I think that’s actually moderate, centrist and probably very much needed.”