New Analysis Predicts COVID-19 End Dates in Caspian Countries and Other Nations

A new artificial intelligence data-driven analysis conducted at the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) has predicted when the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to end in Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan and Iran, as well as other various countries around the world.

According to the calculations of the university based on the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, Azerbaijan could potentially become 97 percent free of the novel coronavirus by May 7. June 15 is the estimated date for when COVID-19 is completely eliminated in the country. 

As of April 28, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Azerbaijan stood at 1,717, while fatalities reached 22. The Operative Headquarters, a special Azerbaijani government structure dealing with coronavirus cases in the country, reported that 1,221 people have been recovered from the disease. Among the four Caspian countries where the vius has spread, Azerbaijan has recorded lowest number of COVID-19 related infections and deaths.

Researchers at SUTD studied the data on the coronavirus pandemic in 131 countries and compiled a mathematical model of the spread of infection, which describes the dynamics of susceptible to infection, infected and recovered. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic will be 97 percent terminated on a global scale by May 29, with the percentage reaching 99 by June 15, and 100 percent by November 26.

The number of confirmed COVID-19 infections in the world has surpassed 3 million, according to the Coronavirus Research Center of the US-based Johns Hopkins University. Total deaths from the virus have surpassed 216,000. The US accounts for the world's highest number of confirmed coronavirus cases, including both infections and fatalities, which have reached 1,004,908 and 58,126, respectively. Spain, Italy, France, and the United Kingdom follow with infections in the range of 162,000-232,000 and 21,000-27,000 deaths.

SUTD experts predict the spread of COVID-19 in Russia to end in August. According to their data-driven estimations, the situation in the world's largest country is most likely to normalize by 97 percent on May 24, by 99 percent by June 4, and completely by August 18.

Russia's Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing reported that as of April 28, over 93,558 people in the country have tested positive for COVID-19, while 867 have died due to complications related to the virus. The total number of recoveries in the country stands at 8,456.

Iran and Kazakhstan are expected to become 97 percent free of the virus by May 20 and June 4, respectively. Furthermore, Iran is expected to be fully rid of the virus on October 23, while the same trend is predicted for Kazakhstan on August 1. The interactive COVID-19 map published by Johns Hopkins University showed 92,584 COVID-19 infections and 5,877 coronavirus-related deaths in Iran as of April 28. In Kazakhstan, the total number of confirmed cases amounted to 3,027, with 25 deaths recorded.

Jianxi Luo, a researcher at SUTD, described the predictions in the analysis as uncertain and noted that readers should be cautious in taking such data into consideration.

"Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may result in lack of discipline and control, and cause a significant increase of COVID-19 infection, and therefore must be avoided," Indonesian news site Tempo.co quoted Luo as saying.