Kazakhstan to Scale Up BTC Pipeline Oil Exports Thirteenfold

Kazakhstan is set to drastically expand its oil exports through non-Russian routes as part of a diversification strategy aimed at reducing its dependence on Russian infrastructure.

Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliev announced on Monday that Kazakhstan plans to increase oil exports through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline — a route spanning Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye — by 13 times, from 1.5 million tons to 20 million tonnes, although no timeframe has been given.

This move aligns with the country’s rising oil production.

“There is interest in developing and gradually increasing the volume of Kazakh oil shipments in this direction both on our side and from the Azerbaijani partners,” Satkaliev told parliament on Monday.

Currently, over 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports pass through Russia, primarily via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline and the Atyrau-Samara route. However, political and logistical risks tied to Russian transit have prompted Kazakhstan to diversify its export routes.

The BTC pipeline has become the country’s main alternative to achieve this goal. Kazakhstan began exporting oil through the BTC last year under an agreement between the Kazakh national energy company KazMunayGas and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR. In 2022, oil deliveries through this route surged 5.5 times to reach 1.39 million tonnes, reflecting growing reliance on this corridor.

Kazakhstan’s oil is transported by tankers across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, from where it is piped to the Turkish Mediterranean coast. The BTC pipeline links the Sangachal terminal on the Caspian Sea to the Ceyhan marine terminal, allowing efficient access to global markets.

This year, Kazakhstan expects to produce 88.4 million metric tonnes of oil, slightly below earlier estimates of over 90 million tonnes due to maintenance at major oilfields and OPEC+ output reduction commitments. Despite this, exports are expected to total 68.8 million tons, with 55.4 million tonnes routed through the CPC pipeline, 8.6 million tonnes via the Atyrau-Samara route, and smaller volumes directed through the Caspian Sea and to China.

By 2026, Kazakhstan aims to boost annual oil production to more than 100 million tonnes, further emphasizing the importance of diversifying its export routes. If the BTC plans proceed as outlined, the proportion of oil exports passing through Russia could drop to about two-thirds, a significant shift in the country’s export strategy.

Globally, Kazakhstan ranks as the tenth-largest crude oil exporter, holding three percent of the world’s total oil reserves. It is also the third-largest oil producer in the Caspian region, following Russia and Iran.

For the past two decades, Kazakh crude oil was primarily transported through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in Russia. However, a Russian court’s threat to shut down the CPC pipeline in July 2022 prompted the Kazakh government and major foreign producers to seek alternative routes.