As Kyrgyzstan Election Nears, Tensions Run High With Neighboring Kazakhstan

As the presidential election is nearing in Kyrgyzstan, a diplomatic spat between the small Central Asian country of over 5.7 million and its neighbor Kazakhstan erupted earlier this month, when Kyrgyzstan’s outgoing President Almazbek Atambayev accused his Kazakhstani counterpart of meddling in the race, without mincing words.

“I understand why the Kazakh authorities want to force their candidate on us,” Atambayev said at a state awards ceremony in Bishkek on October 7. “They love [former president Kurmanbek] Bakiyev. To this day, the Bakiyev family goes for its holidays in Kazakhstan,” he added.

On September 19, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev met with Kyrgyzstan’s opposition presidential candidate Omurbek Babanov in Almaty. The move was interpreted by Atambayev as its larger, northern neighbor meddling in the electoral process of Kyrgyzstan.

Just one day later, Kyrgyzstan sent a note of protest to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, triggering a flurry of back-and-forth diplomatic notes.

"The Ministry expresses bewilderment at the recent meeting of Nazarbayev with one of the candidates for the presidency of the Kyrgyz Republic and an expression of support from the head of Kazakhstan for this candidate in the upcoming elections." Despite the fact that the head of friendly Kazakhstan stated that he does not interfere in Kyrgyzstan's internal affairs, his words clearly reflect the preference of the Kazakh side regarding the future of the president of the Kyrgyz Republic," the note read.

Kyrgyzstanis will go to the polls on October 15 to elect a new president. The election was originally scheduled for the third Sunday in November, but because the presidential term expires on December 1, opposition lawmakers wanted the election date pushed forward to make room for a second round of voting if necessary, and time for inaugural preparations. On May 29, Atambayev announced that the election will be held on October 15.

Atambayev has backed Babanov’s rival, Sooronbai Jeenbekov, who stepped down as prime minister of Kyrgyzstan last month and is a member of the ruling party, the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan. According to some analysts and observers, Atambayev is trying to preserve his influence in the government that will take shape after his single, six-year term is up on December 1.

Regardless of concerns over Atambayev’s intentions for preferring one candidate over another, he has insisted the election will take place on time, and be free and fair.

"I will hold a fair election no matter what,” Atambayev said at the award ceremony.

Kazakhstan’s leaders have not taken Atambayev’s harsh, public rebukes lightly.

“During the above meetings, the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan did not support any particular candidate for the President of the Kyrgyz Republic,” read a statement issued by Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry.

On October 7, Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Bakytzhan Sagintayev accused Atambayev of making incorrect and unfriendly statements, and issued a statement calling the remarks “unacceptable.”

"We are confident that irresponsible, provocative in nature and false statements in the pre-election goals of the President of Kyrgyzstan will not damage the centuries-old bonds of friendship and mutual assistance between our countries,” read the statement, as reported by Kazakhstan’s Tengrin News.

Yerlan Karin, chairman of Kazakhstan TV and Radio Corporation, characterizes the recent downturn in relations between Astana and Bishkek as unnecessary hype.

“The Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry and the team of the main presidential candidate created an artificial scandal without thinking,” Karin told Caspian News. “Meetings with candidates and leaders of political parties have been practiced for a long time. Members of Kyrgyzstan's Central Election Committee also see no violation of the election law in this,” he said.

Nazarbayev’s meeting with Babanov was not unprecedented: He has also met with Sooronbay Jeenbekov, Atambayev’s preferred choice for president and another frontrunner in the race, in mid-August, soon after Jeenbekov had been nominated by his party.

Dosym Satpayev, a Kazakhstani political analyst and the Director of the Risk Assessment Group, says Kyrgyzstan’s objections are a hint that the region does not want another hegemonic power cropping up in the region, to act as a ‘big brother’ to smaller Central Asian states.

“Almazbek Atambayev is the first lame duck in Central Asia, who, by attacking Kazakhstan, wants to seem like an eagle inside the country after the election,” he told Caspian News. “He is not going to leave the political scene.”

He also believes it would be a mistake to think that Atambayev's objections to Nazarbayev meeting Babanov was fueled only by the presidential election campaign.

“Grievances have been accumulating for a long time. Cracks between our countries formed much earlier. For example, the first serious claims by the Kyrgyz leadership against Astana were long before the presidential elections,” Satpayev said.

“They began with the entry of Kyrgyzstan into the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), where, in Bishkek's view, Kazakhstan has artificially obstructed the entry of Kyrgyz products into the EAEU market,” he said, referring to the five-member economic trading bloc that came into being in 2014. Armenia, Belarus and Russia are also members.

“At the EAEU, Bishkek became closer to Moscow, which actively lobbied for the expansion of the organization at the economic expense of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.”

In July, President Nazarbayev signed an agreement to provide Kyrgyzstan with $100 million in financial assistance. Part of the money was to be used for implementing measures that would assist Kyrgyzstan’s integration into the trade bloc.