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Analysts Weigh In On Why U.S. Nat’l Security Advisor John Bolton Is Visiting South Caucasus

By Mushvig Mehdiyev October 21, 2018

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U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton / Joshua Roberts / Bloomberg

U.S. President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton will leave Russia on Tuesday, but he is not heading back to Washington just yet. The South Caucasus countries of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia are all on his agenda, where he is expected to discuss a wide range of issues with senior officials in the capitals of Baku, Yerevan and Tbilisi.

“I’ve got a trip coming up to Moscow and the Caucasus countries in about ten days,” Bolton told American radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt on October 12.

“The reason for that is to continue to carry through on the conversation that President Trump and President Putin had in Helsinki during the summer to talk about U.S.-Russian relations and where we can make progress, where we still have issues and disagreement and then in the Caucasus to see the very significant geographical role that they have dealing with Iran, dealing with Russia, dealing with Turkey.” 

Bolton is scheduled to arrive in Baku on Wednesday. This will be the first visit by a U.S. National Security Advisor since the country’s independence from the USSR in 1991, and the establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations the following year. With high expectations for the visit, analysts in Azerbaijan and abroad have started weighing in on possible reasons for Bolton’s trip.

Andrei Shenin, American Studies Professor at the Department of Regional Studies at the Eurasian National University after Lev Gumilyov, says Bolton’s visit to the South Caucasus, particularly to Azerbaijan, proves America’s interest in what is a strategically important region.

“Most likely, it can be assumed that the main items on the agenda will be issues of Afghanistan and energy, which are fundamentally important for the United States in the region,” Shenin told Trend. “Regarding Afghanistan, Bolton will consolidate agreements on the transportation of goods through ports on the Caspian Sea, and on energy, perhaps, it will be a question of separate business projects that are already being implemented.”

There is anticipation that the U.S. National Security Advisor may raise the issue of Azerbaijan’s assistance with regards to the ongoing military campaign in Afghanistan.

“A large amount of assistance for the American troops in Afghanistan will go through Azerbaijan, at the same time, one should not forget about the TAP and TANAP trunk [natural gas] pipelines,” Shenin said, adding that the implementation of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project is a priority for the United States.

Azerbaijan is the only non-NATO Muslim-majority country and the only country from the Caspian region that provides on-ground support to NATO-led operations in Afghanistan, since 2002. A contingent of 120 servicemen from Azerbaijan currently serve alongside American troops in Afghanistan under the non-combat Resolute Support Mission. Around 40 percent of the international coalition’s fuel, food and clothing supplies bound for forces in Afghanistan pass through the ground and naval routes of the country.

TAP forms part of the Southern Gas Corridor, which will supply Europe with 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, helping it diversify its energy supplies. Natural gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field, beneath the Caspian Sea, will for the first time reach Europe through the 3,500 kilometer-long corridor, starting in 2020. The Southern Gas Corridor consists of three parts: the South Caucasus Pipeline (SGC), the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) and TAP.

“Azerbaijan shares America’s goal of uninterrupted exploration, development and transportation of Caspian Sea energy resources to customers around the world,” Rob Sobhani, an American author and lecturer on energy issues wrote in a recent Washington Times article.

“Azerbaijan has assumed its role as the region’s most reliable export corridor and as such, has become the linchpin of diversifying oil and gas exports away from Russia.”

The head of the Baku-based South Caucasus Experts Group Ilgar Velizade said that to ensure the realization of energy projects in Azerbaijan, Bolton may discuss the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict while in Baku.

"The U.S. is interested in this conflict not spiraling out of control,” Velizade told Report.az. “There will hardly be any concrete proposals [to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict],” however, he added.

“Changes in the political background and the resumption of hostilities threaten American interests, and there is no particular desire for the conflict to resume in the light of the implementation of energy projects here."

Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts, which comprise 20 percent of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory, were occupied by Armenia during a war that lasted for three years until a ceasefire agreement in 1994, claiming the lives of over 30,000 Azerbaijanis and displacing one million more. Armenia has ignored four UN Security Council resolutions to withdraw its forces from occupied lands, perpetuating the conflict and maintaining what are high tensions between the two countries that were once part of the USSR.