Russia Aims to Cause Panic in Kharkiv, Warns of Possible Offensive: ISW

As the conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalates, the strategic importance of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, has come sharply into focus.

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the Kremlin is conducting a concerted air and information operation to destroy Kharkiv and cause panic among Ukrainians, urging them to flee ahead of possible Russian offensive.

The recent attack on the city's TV tower underscores the gravity of the situation.

On the afternoon of April 22, Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Synehubov, along with the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office, reported that Russian forces targeted a TV tower in Kharkiv City, likely employing a Kh-59 cruise missile. The devastating strike shattered the structure, causing it to split in half and partially collapse, consequently interrupting television signals across the area.

Russian state media and military bloggers have sought to justify the action, alleging that Ukrainian forces had installed unspecified air defense communication and coordination equipment atop the targeted structure.

ISW, an American non-profit research group and think tank, believes Russia's strategy involves the dissemination of disinformation to sow confusion and undermine morale among Ukrainians.

In February, Russian Telegram channels circulated rumors of Ukrainian officials abandoning Kharkiv City. In early April, Russian sources peddled claims of a "mass exodus" of civilians from the city, further exacerbating tensions.

Vladimir Solovyov, a propagandist for Russian state TV, stated on March 28 that Russian forces should destroy Kharkiv City "quarter by quarter" and proposed giving citizens in Ukraine 48 hours to evacuate the city – presumably so they won't be killed when Russia destroys the city.

On April 16, the Russian newspaper Tsargrad reiterated statements made by some unidentified military sources that a Russian offensive operation to take Kharkiv City is unavoidable and that the situation there will get "worse than Bakhmut and Avdiivka." Tsargrad asserted that while there is "no doubt" that Russian forces will take control of Kharkiv City, the best course of action for them to do so while minimizing significant casualties would be to employ "blockade tactics," such as "cutting off electricity, gas, and water" for residents.

According to a popular Russian milblogger, the strikes on Kharkiv City on April 22 are a sign for civilians in Ukraine to leave "while they still can." He also said that if Ukrainian forces are "hiding in the basement," it makes no sense for civilians to hide in and defend their apartments, suggesting that Russian forces may be intentionally targeting residential infrastructure.

ISW assesses that the likelihood of a successful Russian ground offensive against Kharkiv is very low if Ukraine receives renewed US military aid rapidly.

Kharkiv is a regional center in northeast Ukraine, located 19 miles from the Russian border. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russians have attacked the city, as well as its region’s community, often because of its proximity to the border. They use guided air bombs, missiles, drones, and other weapons.

Russian forces launched a major assault on Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The invasion by land, air, and the sea began after a pre-dawn TV address where Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that Ukraine’s military lay down its arms.

The Russian president claimed that the “special military operation” was aimed at protecting the people of two self-proclaimed separatist-controlled regions of Ukraine allegedly being attacked by the Ukrainian military. The Russian offensive was launched in northern, eastern and southern directions as Russia tried to cripple the defense lines of the Ukrainian army quickly. However, the strong resistance of Ukraine’s military and civilians across the country foiled the blitzkrieg attempts of the Russian army.

Ukraine and Russia have been at odds since the 2014 crisis in Ukraine’s southern and eastern regions. Ukraine accused Russia of annexing the Crimean Peninsula – a territory that extends into the Black Sea – and backing anti-government separatist regimes in the country’s eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.